Italy and ecological transition: virtuosity and structural inertia

In 2024, Italy is at a new turning point in the ecological transition with an uncertain, almost two-faced profile. This is put in black and white by the annual report "10 Key Trends on Climate" by Italy for Climate, a sort of environmental report card that, with scientific rigor and critical spirit, assesses the state of the art of our country on the path towards a climate-neutral economy. The results show an Italy that has been able to accelerate in some strategic areas, such as renewable sources and the decarbonization of the electricity sector, but which remains seriously behind in other key sectors, first and foremost transport.

The extreme weather events recorded in 2024 – as many as 3,631 according to the European Severe Weather Database – place the issue of the climate crisis on a level of absolute urgency. It is no longer a question of future scenarios, but of a daily life that is becoming increasingly unstable and violent: torrential rains, gusts of wind, hailstorms and even tornadoes have exceeded all historical records. This growing weather instability has an immediate and tangible impact on the ecosystem and the economy, and requires a systemic response that can no longer be postponed.

Among the most evident fragilities that emerged from the report, the water issue stands out: snow stocks in 2024 marked a deficit of 36% compared to the average of the previous decade, with peaks of -86% in the Tiber and Aterno basins. A trend that compromises the resilience of the territory, agriculture and hydroelectric production, demonstrating how climate change is already eroding the foundations of our environmental security.

On the greenhouse gas emissions front, the slowdown in decarbonization remains the most critical issue. After the good performance of 2023, 2024 saw a cut in emissions of only 2.3%, equivalent to about 10 million tons less: half of what would be needed to align with the trajectory envisaged by the European targets for 2030. This is a marginal reduction, which confirms a trend that is too slow and insufficient compared to the needs imposed by the Paris Agreement.

To further complicate the picture, there is a return to growth in energy consumption (+1.5%), driven in particular by the construction sector – thanks to a harsher winter – and transport, which is confirmed as the sector least responsive to decarbonisation policies. Dependence on foreign countries for energy needs is still high, although decreasing: imports cover 72% of demand, the lowest value recorded, thanks mainly to the growth of electric renewables.

And it is precisely the renewable energy sector that constitutes one of the few areas in which Italy can boast a truly positive trend. 2024 saw the installation of 7.5 GW of new wind and solar plants, an important result that represents about 70% of what is needed on an annual basis to achieve the already unambitious goals of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan. A concrete progress that has made it possible to bring the share of energy produced from renewable sources to 49%, coming close to overtaking fossil fuels for the first time. An emblematic figure accompanies this progress: 1 kWh consumed in Italy in 2024 generated only 200 grams of CO₂, a 65% reduction compared to the early 90s.

Surprisingly, industry is confirmed as the most virtuous sector in reducing emissions. Since 1990, industrial emissions have been reduced by 40%, a result achieved also thanks to greater energy efficiency and the electrification of some production processes. This shows that decarbonization is not a mirage, but a concrete and viable process when supported by coherent policies and adequate investments.

Less encouraging, however, are the results related to the construction sector. Heat pumps, which are expected to be at the heart of the energy transition for buildings, recorded a decline in sales for the second year in a row. A worrying trend, partly due to the end of the Superbonus incentives and partly to a lack of widespread culture on energy efficiency. On the other hand, domestic photovoltaics is in positive contrast: over 1.6 million systems installed today cover about 15% of domestic electricity consumption, testifying to how the transition can also start "from the bottom", through conscious choices by citizens.

But it is in transport that the real Italian defeat takes place.

In 2024, the sector's emissions grew by more than 2%, exceeding 110 million tons of CO₂, a value even higher than in 1990. This figure confirms the absence of effective decarbonisation policies in the sector: electric cars are struggling to take off, logistics continues to focus on energy-intensive modes of transport, and cities remain congested and polluted.

In conclusion, Italy for Climate's judgment is clear: Italy is not yet marching at the right pace towards the transition. However, the positive signs – although still insufficient – tell us that change is possible. The slowdown recorded in the first quarter of 2025 in the growth of renewables, however, reported by Terna, sounds like an alarm bell. After three years of progress, Italy cannot afford setbacks.

The climate challenge is, after all, a cultural challenge: it is not enough to innovate technology, it is also necessary to innovate political, economic and social thinking. Sustainability is no longer an optional subject. It is the grammar of the future. And we, as a country-system, must finally prove ourselves up to the task.